International Trade Industry Analysis and Forecasts

This article was written by our expert who is surveying the industry and constantly updating the business plan for an import/export company.

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The Dojo Business Team

A team of financial experts, consultants, and writers

We're a team of finance experts, consultants, market analysts, and specialized writers dedicated to helping new entrepreneurs launch their businesses. We help you avoid costly mistakes by providing detailed business plans, accurate market studies, and reliable financial forecasts to maximize your chances of success from day one—especially in the import/export market.

What are the current global trade volumes by region and sector, and how have they changed in five years?

Global trade value reached ≈$33T in 2024, with services revenue outgrowing goods and Asia leading volume gains.

From 2020–2024, services expanded about +9% YoY in 2024 while goods rose +2%, and 2025 began with modest G20 growth (exports +2.0%, imports +3.1%).

ASEAN economies such as Singapore and Vietnam remained highly trade-intensive, with trade often exceeding GDP and electronics/industrial goods driving flows.

For an import/export company, this mix means focusing on service-enabled offerings (after-sales, digital documentation) and Asia-centric sourcing or sales routes.

Use region-sector mapping to pick lanes with growth, short lead times, and favorable duties.

Which countries are the top exporters and importers today, and what are their growth rates?

China, the United States, and Germany remain the top merchandise exporters, while the United States is the largest importer.

In 2025, EU exports rebounded and US imports rose; ASEAN leaders (Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam) posted double-digit YoY export growth in select months.

Thailand reached about +17.8% YoY in March 2025, Indonesia about +11.3% in June 2025, with electronics, processed foods, and industrial goods as drivers.

For an import/export company, these growth poles indicate where to prioritize prospecting and supplier development.

Use the table to target your top five country pairs and negotiate volume-based rates.

What policy changes, trade agreements, or tariffs are reshaping flows right now?

• Broad US tariff baseline around 10% on most imports, with higher, targeted rates on specific sectors/origins; periodic revisions require SKU-level repricing.
• Retaliatory measures from key partners (e.g., China, EU, Mexico, Canada) create two-way duties; route planning and rules-of-origin optimization become essential.
• RCEP and upgraded Asian FTAs (e.g., ACFTA enhancements) deepen regional integration and simplify documentation across many ASEAN+ corridors.
• EU sustainability measures (e.g., CBAM-related data requests) push exporters to collect emissions and traceability data.
• Export controls and sanctions in strategic sectors (semiconductors, dual-use goods) demand robust screening, licensing checks, and end-use verification.

How are geopolitical tensions, conflicts, or sanctions affecting trade routes and supply chains?

Policy uncertainty, sanctions, and regional conflicts have increased route risk and forced supply-chain diversification.

Freight indices trended lower since late 2024 on weaker goods demand and added capacity, yet episodic disruptions still trigger sharp, temporary spikes.

Technology and pharma supply chains are leading “friend-shoring” by relocating sensitive stages to lower-risk jurisdictions.

For an import/export company, pre-approve alternates (ports, carriers, incoterms) and maintain 2–3 supplier options per critical component.

You’ll find detailed market insights in our import/export company business plan, updated every quarter.

What role are technology, automation, and digital platforms playing?

Automation and digital customs are cutting clearance times and errors while enabling proactive compliance.

Digital traceability, e-invoicing, and platform-based booking reduce transaction costs and improve on-time performance across Asia and the EU.

For an import/export company, digitize HS classification, origin management, and license workflows to accelerate shipments and reduce penalties.

Adopt API links with forwarders and insurers to get real-time ETAs and claims processing.

This is one of the strategies explained in our import/export company business plan.

Which industries will likely see the fastest trade growth in the next 5–10 years?

• Electronics and semiconductors (assembly shifting into ASEAN; demand from AI/edge devices).
• Pharmaceuticals and medical devices (aging populations; resilient supply priority in EU/US).
• Clean tech and components (batteries, solar, EV parts) driven by decarbonization policies.
• Agro-processing (value-added foods) in emerging markets benefiting from regional demand.
• Trade-related services (logistics tech, testing, certification, after-sales) rising faster than goods.

What is the projected impact of sustainability rules and carbon-neutral commitments?

Sustainability regulations are shifting sourcing toward lower-emission inputs and routes, with documentation as a gating factor.

EU-linked measures increase demand for emissions data (scope, methodology) and for proof of sustainable practices across suppliers.

For an import/export company, collect product-level emissions data and negotiate green-logistics options (biofuel/sustainable aviation fuel).

Offer customers carbon-aware routing and itemized carbon surcharges to protect margins.

We cover this exact topic in the import/export company business plan.

How are shifts in consumer demand—especially in emerging markets—changing trade dynamics?

Emerging-market middle classes are pulling in more electronics, personal care, and processed foods, often via regional suppliers.

Demand growth is strongest where logistics is reliable and digital commerce is widespread, reinforcing intra-Asia trade ties.

For an import/export company, test SKUs regionally, then scale with localized packaging and compliant labeling.

Match assortment to shorter lead times and flexible MOQs for fast-moving consumer niches.

It’s a key part of what we outline in the import/export company business plan.

What are the latest logistics and shipping cost trends and their impact on profitability?

Ocean rates trended down from late 2024 due to weaker goods demand and added capacity.

Disruptions and energy price spikes still cause temporary surges; contracts should reflect index-linked adjustments and service-level penalties.

For an import/export company, blend spot and contract exposure and maintain multi-carrier options.

Use the table to map actions by mode and lane risk.

Which currencies and exchange-rate moves pose the biggest risks or opportunities?

USD volatility is the dominant profitability driver because it is the primary invoicing currency.

EUR is the second anchor for invoicing; EM currencies (e.g., THB, IDR, MXN) introduce local margin swing but also pricing advantages.

For an import/export company, standardize USD/EUR invoicing where possible and hedge predictable exposures with forwards and options.

Map exposures by currency pair and tenor, and set a hedging policy per corridor.

What are the main financing mechanisms and capital flows supporting cross-border trade?

• Documentary trade finance (LCs, SBLCs, documentary collections) remains core for first-time counterparties and higher-risk lanes.
• Supply-chain finance (payables financing, dynamic discounting) lowers working-capital needs and supports volume scaling.
• Export credit agencies and multilateral banks fund capex/logistics infrastructure, especially in Asia and Latin America.
• Digital trade platforms streamline KYC, fraud checks, and receivables financing for SMEs.
• Rising interest rates and policy uncertainty add cost; fix-rate facilities where possible and diversify lenders.

What are the leading forecasts for overall trade growth in the short and medium term?

Short-term (1–2 years): baseline growth around 2–3% annually, with downside risk from new tariffs and macro slowdowns.

Medium-term (5–10 years): services, clean tech, electronics, and compliant supply chains are set to outpace commodities/traditional manufacturing.

For an import/export company, growth depends on policy easing, FTA usage, and digitized compliance.

Use the table to align your growth plan with likely sector and lane winners.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We accept no liability for any actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. UNCTAD — Global Trade Update (March 2025)
2. OECD — International Trade Statistics, Q1 2025
3. UNCTAD — Global trade grew $300B in H1 2025
4. BBC — Coverage on recent US tariff policy
5. Trade Compliance Resource Hub — Tariff Tracker (2025)
6. J.P. Morgan — Research on US tariffs and trade
7. UNCTAD — Global Trade Update (September 2025)
8. UNCTAD — Trade and Development Technical Report (2025)
9. UN Comtrade — International Merchandise Trade
10. World Bank — World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)