This article was written by our expert who is surveying the pub industry and constantly updating the business plan for a pub.
If you are launching a pub in October 2025, this guide gives you the numbers, patterns, and actions that matter.
It translates current market data into clear decisions on offer, pricing, and operations so you can open and run a profitable pub from day one.
If you want to dig deeper and learn more, you can download our business plan for a pub. Also, before launching, get all the profit, revenue, and cost breakdowns you need for complete clarity with our pub financial forecast.
The global pub, bar, and nightclub market is about $116bn in 2025, with steady 2–5% annual growth expected through 2028; the UK counts ~41.7k pubs and the US ~68.4k bars. Younger urban customers, food-led visits, premium cocktails, and fast-growing no/low-alcohol choices are shaping demand.
Technology (mobile ordering, loyalty), experiences, and wellness-friendly menus are now baseline expectations. Seasonal peaks arrive in late spring and summer; winter requires targeted events and cost control.
| Key metric (2025) | Status / Data point | Implication for a new pub |
|---|---|---|
| Global market size | ≈ $116bn; CAGR ~4.4% to 2033 | Room for growth in most segments if positioned clearly. |
| UK market size | £24.1bn; 41,691 outlets | Food-led and premium drinks drive share; location matters. |
| US market size | ≈ $38bn; ~68,447 establishments | Competitive market; differentiate via cocktails and events. |
| Spend per visit (UK) | £24.59 in 2025; +7.3% YoY | Menu engineering and premium upsells lift ticket size. |
| Visits & frequency | Frequency +4.3%; penetration +1.3pp YoY | Loyalty and events convert casual to regular visits. |
| Top growth categories | No/low-alcohol +31% globally; spirits/cocktails rising | Offer zero-proof range and signature cocktails. |
| Seasonality | Peaks late spring–summer; festive spikes in Dec | Staffing, inventory, and event calendar must follow seasons. |
| Tech adoption | Mobile ordering, digital loyalty, reservations now common | Implement seamless ordering and data-driven offers. |
What is the current size of the pub industry (revenue and number of establishments)?
The pub, bar, and nightclub market is large and growing, with clear country totals for outlets.
| Region / Market | 2025 Revenue | Establishments / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Global | ≈ $116bn; CAGR ~4.4% forecast to 2033 | Steady structural growth across premium and experiential formats. |
| United Kingdom | ≈ £24.1bn | ≈ 41,691 pubs; food-led models and premium drinks drive share. |
| United States | ≈ $38bn | ≈ 68,447 bars/nightclubs; cocktail-led venues and sports bars prominent. |
| Europe (rest) | Material share of global growth | Urban social hubs with strong no/low adoption and experiential events. |
| Urban hubs | Higher spend per head | Concentrated competition; tech-enabled, experience-driven concepts. |
| Rural & small towns | Stable core demand | Community anchor role; value and familiarity matter most. |
| Implication | Enough headroom to grow | Choose a clear positioning and align menu, drinks, and events accordingly. |
How has pub consumer spending changed over five years, and what is the three-year outlook?
Spending and frequency have rebounded post-pandemic and continue to trend upward into 2028.
| Period | Observed trend | What it means for a new pub |
|---|---|---|
| 2021–2023 | Recovery with strong surges after restrictions lifted | Build a loyal base with consistent events and targeted offers. |
| 2024 | Continued real growth in hospitality and leisure spending | Menu-engineer to protect margins as costs fluctuate. |
| 2025 | UK spend/visit ≈ £24.59 (+7.3% YoY); frequency +4.3% | Upsell premium cocktails and shareable food to lift ticket size. |
| 2026–2028 (forecast) | Global revenue +2% to +5% CAGR expected | Invest in loyalty and data to capture repeat visits. |
| Price sensitivity | Inflation moderates but value perception remains key | Use good-better-best tiers and bundles for value clarity. |
| Category mix | Premium spirits/cocktails and no/low grow share | Curate a concise but high-margin list. |
| Action | Plan for steady top-line and margin defense | Lock in suppliers; index pricing to input costs. |
Which customer groups visit pubs most now, and how are preferences shifting?
Millennials lead pub visits, with Gen Z gaining, and older groups visiting less frequently.
| Group | Current behavior & preferences | Practical actions for your pub |
|---|---|---|
| Millennials (≈25–40) | Most active; premium cocktails, quality food, experiences | Signature cocktails, kitchen quality, themed nights. |
| Gen Z (≈18–24) | Rising participation; budget-aware; no/low choices | Student bundles, zero-proof range, social content. |
| Gen X (≈41–54) | Steady visits; value consistency and comfort | Reliable classics, seating comfort, booking ease. |
| 55–64 | Selective visits; prefer quieter periods, good service | Early-evening offers, attentive table service. |
| 65+ | Lower frequency overall | Daytime deals, community activities. |
| Dietary needs | More vegan/vegetarian/gluten-free requests | Menu icons, transparent allergen info. |
| Implication | Young urban segments set trends | Program experiences and wellness-friendly menus. |
How do urban and rural pub customers behave differently?
Urban guests seek novelty and convenience; rural guests value familiarity and community.
| Dimension | Urban pubs | Rural pubs |
|---|---|---|
| Visit drivers | Innovation, atmosphere, proximity, quick service | Community, habit, personal relationships, value |
| Menu focus | Trendy cocktails, shareables, seasonal rotations | Comfort food, local beer, dependable staples |
| Tech expectations | Mobile ordering, digital loyalty, online reservations | Basic booking; face-to-face service emphasized |
| Price tolerance | Higher for convenience/experience | Value-led; promotions resonate |
| Events | Themed nights, DJs, craft takeovers | Quiz nights, live local music, sports screenings |
| Marketing | Social-first, influencers, partnerships | Community groups, local sponsorships |
| Staffing | Specialist mixologists, peak-hour throughput | Cross-trained team, hospitality continuity |
How is demand shifting between alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, and which categories grow fastest?
Beer still leads occasions, but spirits/cocktails and no/low options are growing fastest.
| Category | 2025 trend | Menu action for your pub |
|---|---|---|
| Beer | Largest share (e.g., ~63% of UK occasions), growth flat | Rotate taps; highlight local craft; size options for margin. |
| Spirits & cocktails | Fast growth; premiumization strong | Short, profitable signature list; prep batched cocktails. |
| Wine & cider | Mixed to mild decline | Tight range; focus on dependable SKUs. |
| No/Low alcohol | Sales up ≈31% globally YoY | Create a zero-proof section: AF beer, mocktails, spritz. |
| Functional / wellness | Growing interest (low sugar, low carb, natural) | Label sugar/ABV; add light mixers and soda-based cocktails. |
| Bundles | Helps manage price sensitivity | Pitch “cocktail + shareable” early evening combos. |
| Implication | Mix shifts favor margin if curated well | Engineer pours, glassware, and pricing for GP%. |
How much does food influence pub visits, and which menus work best?
Food is a primary reason many guests choose a pub, especially in competitive urban areas.
Clear, dependable staples (burgers, pies, wings, pizza) anchor demand while shareables drive group orders.
Health-conscious items (vegetarian, vegan, gluten-free) broaden reach and support daytime trade.
Engineer your menu for margins (good-better-best, add-ons, and sides) and display it prominently online.
You’ll find detailed menu and margin tactics in our pub business plan, updated every quarter.
How much do health and wellness trends affect choices in pubs?
Wellness expectations are now mainstream, especially among younger and female customers.
Low-sugar mixers, low-carb options, and transparent ingredients increase conversion without hurting margins.
Zero-proof cocktails and plant-forward dishes meet social occasions without alcohol, expanding party size.
Train staff to suggest lighter options and mark them clearly on menus and boards.
We cover this exact topic in the pub business plan.
What is the impact of entertainment, events, and experiences on traffic and loyalty?
- Weekly anchors (quiz night, live music, sports screenings) turn sporadic guests into regulars.
- Monthly themed events (tap takeovers, cocktail classes) lift spend/visit and social reach.
- Seasonal festivals (summer terrace, Oktoberfest, St. Patrick’s) create high-margin peaks.
- Private bookings (birthdays, company socials) stabilize shoulder periods.
- On-brand ambience (lighting, playlists, decor) increases dwell time and attachment.
How has technology (mobile ordering, loyalty) changed expectations in pubs?
- Mobile ordering reduces wait times at peaks and increases order frequency per table.
- Digital loyalty boosts repeat rate with targeted rewards based on visit/sku data.
- Online reservations help forecast staffing and inventory, reducing waste.
- QR menus with clear upsells (sides, premium mixers) lift average check.
- Guest Wi-Fi + consented opt-ins build a remarketing list for events and slow nights.
This is one of the strategies explained in our pub business plan.
What are the main seasonal patterns in pub attendance and revenue?
Late spring and summer are the strongest months, with a festive spike in December.
| Season | Demand pattern | Operator response |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Feb | Soft demand; wellness resets; price sensitivity | Zero-proof promos, comfort food bundles, cost control. |
| Mar–Apr | Recovery with events (Easter, sports) | Sports schedules, spring cocktails, patio prep. |
| May–Jun | Strong uplift; outdoor trade peaks | Terrace activations, spritz menus, staffing ramp-up. |
| Jul–Aug | Peak footfall; tourism effects | Frozen cocktails, festivals, shift bidding for staff. |
| Sep–Oct | Stable; return-to-routine; sports | After-work bundles, matchday offers, quiz relaunch. |
| Nov | Build to festive period | Group bookings, set menus, gift-card push. |
| Dec | Festive spike; high spend/visit | Ticketed parties, premium packages, prepayment. |
Which external factors (economy, rules) most influence pub behavior today?
Disposable income, inflation, licensing, and alcohol policy shape visit frequency and basket size.
When real incomes tighten, guests trade down to value bundles but still respond to experiences.
Regulatory shifts (hours, licensing, health rules) can raise costs or restrict high-margin categories.
Balance value architecture with premium signals and keep compliance processes tight.
It’s a key part of what we outline in the pub business plan.
What strategies work best for pub operators adapting to these trends?
- Engineer a concise, margin-positive drink list (premium spirits, signatures, zero-proof set).
- Run a food menu with clear heroes, shareables, and dietary transparency.
- Program repeatable events (weekly anchors + monthly specials) and sell tickets for peaks.
- Deploy mobile ordering and a data-driven loyalty program with segmented offers.
- Plan seasonally (staffing, inventory, and promos) and pre-sell December.
Get expert guidance and actionable steps inside our pub business plan.
Conclusion
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We accept no liability for any actions taken based on the information provided.
Want more on opening and running a profitable pub?
Explore step-by-step planning, beverage cost control, and profitability levers tailored to pubs.
Sources
- MarketReportAnalytics — Pubs, Bars & Nightclubs Market
- Lumina Intelligence — UK Pub Market 2025
- Morning Advertiser — Consumer Spending in Pubs
- BizPlanr — Bar Industry Statistics
- Gerald Edelman — Industry Update: Pubs & Bars
- Trust Inns — Rise of Non-Alcoholic Options
- The Drinks Business — No & Low Trends 2025
- BlueCart — Beverage Industry Trends
- WebstaurantStore — Bar Trends
- AIB — Hospitality Seasonality (Ireland)