Retail Sector Statistics and Forecasts

This article was written by our expert who is surveying the industry and constantly updating the business plan for a retail store.

Who wrote this content?

The Dojo Business Team

A team of financial experts, consultants, and writers

We're a team of finance experts, consultants, market analysts, and specialized writers dedicated to helping new entrepreneurs launch their businesses. We help you avoid costly mistakes by providing detailed business plans, accurate market studies, and reliable financial forecasts to maximize your chances of success from day one—especially in the retail market.

What is the current size of the retail sector in terms of revenue, employment, and number of businesses?

The retail sector generated $35.2 trillion in global revenue during 2025, with total retail sales reaching $32.4 trillion and e-commerce contributing $6.88 trillion.

In the United States alone, retail sales exceeded $6 trillion across 4.6 million businesses. The sector employs approximately 55 million workers in the US, making it the largest private-sector employer in the country.

Globally, there are over 28 million e-commerce businesses serving more than 3 billion digital buyers. The largest retail markets are concentrated in the United States, China, and India, which together represent the majority of global retail activity.

E-commerce now accounts for 21% of total retail sales worldwide, reflecting the accelerated digital transformation that has reshaped consumer shopping behaviors over recent years.

How has retail sector performance evolved over the past five years across major regions and categories?

The retail sector experienced steady growth from 2019 to 2025, with the COVID-19 pandemic serving as a major catalyst for e-commerce acceleration in 2020.

E-commerce sales grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.7% in 2020 during the pandemic peak. Brick-and-mortar retail recovered in the post-pandemic period but now faces slower growth compared to digital channels.

Asia and the Gulf regions have demonstrated the fastest volume growth during this period, driven by young populations, rising incomes, urbanization trends, and widespread digital adoption. Meanwhile, the US and EU markets have shown more cautious but stable growth, supported by mature economies, high wage levels, and sophisticated omnichannel strategies.

Different retail categories have performed variably—food retail and essential goods maintained stability, while discretionary categories like apparel and department stores faced significant pressure, with some experiencing bankruptcies and permanent closures.

What are the main consumer spending trends currently driving retail growth or contraction?

Value-driven and cautious spending dominates consumer behavior in 2025, with discretionary spending beginning to recover thanks to rising real incomes and easing inflation in key markets.

Experience-oriented spending has gained traction among younger and affluent demographics, who are making selective splurges on travel, technology, luxury goods, and home improvement. Approximately 33% of consumers under 45 prioritize experiences and leisure activities, while 25% focus on technology upgrades and 18% allocate budget to luxury purchases.

Price sensitivity remains high across most consumer segments, with 67% of shoppers demanding value for money even when considering ethical or sustainable products. This has strengthened the position of discount retailers and value-focused formats during periods of economic uncertainty.

The shift toward online shopping continues, with consumers increasingly expecting seamless omnichannel experiences that integrate online browsing, mobile apps, and in-store pickup or returns.

You'll find detailed market insights in our retail store business plan, updated every quarter.

Which retail formats are gaining or losing market share?

E-commerce continues its rapid ascent and now commands 21% of total retail sales in 2025, with global platforms like Amazon and Alibaba dominating market share.

Discount retailers are gaining significant ground, particularly attractive to consumers during periods of economic uncertainty who prioritize value and affordability. Supermarkets maintain stable or moderately growing positions due to their bulk purchasing appeal and essential goods offerings.

What role does digital transformation play in shaping the retail sector?

Digital transformation investments in retail reached $285.7 billion in 2025 and are expanding at a 17.3% compound annual growth rate.

Artificial intelligence, automation, augmented reality, virtual reality, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and customer relationship management (CRM) systems are fundamentally reshaping both front-end customer experiences and back-end operations. A striking 91% of retail IT leaders now prioritize AI integration as a strategic imperative.

Omnichannel strategies that merge online, mobile, and in-store customer journeys have become essential rather than optional for competitive retail businesses. Consumers expect seamless transitions between channels—browsing online, purchasing via mobile app, and picking up or returning items in physical stores.

E-commerce penetration continues accelerating, with online and omnichannel formats projected to grow at 7-9% annually, significantly outpacing traditional brick-and-mortar sales growth. Retailers that fail to invest in digital capabilities risk losing market share to more technologically sophisticated competitors.

How do macroeconomic factors affect retail performance?

Retail sector growth is currently supported by easing inflation, moderate interest rates, real wage gains, and stable employment levels, particularly in US and EU markets.

However, higher borrowing costs in some regions create headwinds for consumer financing of big-ticket purchases like furniture, appliances, and vehicles. Tariffs, especially those related to US-China trade tensions, and general supply chain inflation directly impact product availability and retail pricing strategies.

Disposable income levels remain the most critical driver of retail spending—when real wages rise and inflation moderates, consumers increase discretionary purchases. Conversely, economic uncertainty causes consumers to shift toward essential goods and value-oriented retailers.

Interest rates affect both consumer credit usage and retailer borrowing costs for inventory and expansion. The current moderate rate environment provides reasonable conditions for retail growth, though any significant increases would pressure consumer spending capacity.

This is one of the strategies explained in our retail store business plan.

What are the most significant challenges retailers are facing?

Retailers confront three primary challenge categories in 2025: supply chain disruptions, labor market pressures, and increasing regulatory demands.

Supply chain disruptions stem from geopolitical tensions, port congestion, and tariff increases that affect product availability and pricing. Retailers are responding by investing in technology solutions, predictive analytics, and supply chain diversification to build resilience.

Labor challenges include increased layoffs in early 2025 alongside persistent hiring needs in specific areas, creating market volatility. Wage growth and regulatory compliance requirements continue increasing operational costs, forcing retailers to balance competitive pay with profitability concerns.

Regulatory pressures are intensifying, particularly around environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria and sustainability traceability. New tax regulations, packaging requirements, wage laws, and labor standards vary significantly across jurisdictions, creating compliance complexity for multi-market retailers.

Which geographic regions and consumer demographics present the strongest growth opportunities?

Asia, the Middle East, and Africa represent the strongest near-term growth opportunities for retail businesses.

These regions benefit from young populations with increasing purchasing power, rapid urbanization that concentrates consumers in cities, and accelerating digital adoption that enables e-commerce expansion. Latin America and Southeast Asia specifically present opportunities for digital retail innovation and logistics infrastructure development.

What are the latest technological innovations being adopted in retail?

AI-powered analytics systems are transforming retail decision-making, enabling personalized recommendations, dynamic pricing, and demand forecasting.

Cashierless stores using computer vision and sensor fusion technology eliminate traditional checkout processes, reducing labor costs and improving customer convenience. Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) applications allow customers to visualize products in their homes or try on items virtually before purchasing.

Blockchain technology is being implemented for supply chain transparency and product authentication, particularly important for luxury goods and ethically sourced products. IoT devices enable real-time inventory tracking, automated reordering, and smart shelf management that reduces stockouts and overstock situations.

Automation in logistics and warehousing—including robotic picking systems and autonomous delivery vehicles—increases fulfillment speed and reduces operational costs. Robust CRM platforms integrate customer data across all touchpoints, enabling sophisticated segmentation and targeted marketing campaigns.

Retail media networks are growing rapidly as advertising channels, with major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Carrefour monetizing their customer traffic and purchasing data through sponsored product placements and targeted advertising.

What is the forecasted growth rate of the retail sector over the next three to five years?

The global retail sector is projected to grow at a 6-8% compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2030.

Starting from $35.2 trillion in 2025, the sector is expected to reach approximately $51 trillion by 2030. Online and omnichannel retail formats will significantly outpace traditional brick-and-mortar stores, with non-store sales growing at 7-9% annually.

E-commerce is projected to continue capturing an increasing share of total retail sales, potentially exceeding 25% by 2030. Digital transformation investments will accelerate across all retail segments as competitive pressures intensify.

Regional growth rates will vary substantially—Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to see the highest growth rates of 8-12% annually, while mature markets like the US and EU will grow at more moderate 3-5% rates. Categories experiencing the strongest growth include electronics, health and wellness products, and sustainable goods.

We cover this exact topic in the retail store business plan.

How are sustainability practices influencing retail strategies and performance?

Sustainability has become a core component of retail sector strategy rather than a peripheral concern in 2025.

Retailers are implementing waste reduction programs, circular economy models that emphasize product reuse and recycling, and supply chain transparency initiatives to meet consumer and regulatory expectations. However, 67% of consumers still prioritize value for money alongside ethical considerations, creating tension between sustainability investments and price competitiveness.

ESG compliance pressure is intensifying, particularly regarding supply chain practices, ethical sourcing, sustainable packaging materials, and labor standards. Retailers face increasing scrutiny from investors, regulators, and consumer advocacy groups on their environmental and social impact.

Sustainable and ethical products are growing market segments, with younger consumers particularly willing to pay premiums for verified sustainable options. Retailers that authentically communicate their sustainability efforts—backed by third-party certifications and transparent reporting—gain competitive advantages in brand reputation and customer loyalty.

What key risks could alter current retail sector forecasts?

Trade disruptions remain the foremost risk factor, including tariff escalations, geopolitical tensions affecting international supply chains, and potential trade policy reversals.

Supply chain bottlenecks could resurface due to natural disasters, political instability in manufacturing regions, or transportation infrastructure failures. Cybersecurity threats are escalating as retailers collect vast amounts of customer data and conduct increasing transaction volumes digitally.

Regulatory burdens may increase unexpectedly through new tax policies, labor laws, environmental regulations, or data privacy requirements that vary across jurisdictions. Consumer demand shocks—triggered by economic recession, pandemic resurgence, or major geopolitical events—could rapidly alter spending patterns and retail performance.

Continued macroeconomic volatility, including inflation resurgence, interest rate spikes, or currency fluctuations, would affect consumer purchasing power and retailer profitability. Retailers should prepare by investing in operational resilience through technology adoption, diversified supplier networks, and agile management systems capable of rapid response to changing conditions.

Conclusion

The retail sector in 2025 presents substantial opportunities for entrepreneurs who understand the market dynamics, embrace digital transformation, and adapt to evolving consumer preferences. With global revenue of $35.2 trillion and projected growth to $51 trillion by 2030, the sector remains one of the world's most significant economic engines. Success requires balancing technological innovation with cost management, implementing omnichannel strategies, navigating complex supply chain challenges, and responding to consumer demands for both value and sustainability. Regional opportunities vary considerably, with Asia, the Middle East, and Africa offering the highest growth potential, while mature markets reward sophisticated hybrid retail models. The retail businesses that will thrive are those that invest strategically in digital capabilities, build supply chain resilience, prioritize customer experience across all channels, and maintain operational agility to adapt to macroeconomic shifts and competitive pressures.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We accept no liability for any actions taken based on the information provided.