This article was written by our expert who is surveying the industry and constantly updating the business plan for a grocery store.
Below is a practical, numbers-first FAQ on supermarket industry statistics and growth forecasts for October 2025.
It gives you the essential figures you need if you are launching or scaling a grocery store: market size, growth rates, leaders, online penetration, margins, private label dynamics, technology, regulations, regional differences, and the risk–return picture.
If you want to dig deeper and learn more, you can download our business plan for a grocery store. Also, before launching, get all the profit, revenue, and cost breakdowns you need for complete clarity with our grocery store financial forecast.
The global supermarket & hypermarket market is about $4.08 trillion in 2025, and on track to ~$5.41 trillion by 2029, with Asia–Pacific leading growth while North America and Europe remain mature.
Online grocery holds roughly 12–16% share in advanced markets (lower globally) and is expected to pass 20–25% within five years, supported by last-mile, automation, and data-driven operations.
| Indicator | 2025 Status / Range | Outlook (5–10 Years) |
|---|---|---|
| Global market size (supermarkets & hypermarkets) | ~$4.08T revenue | ~$5.41T by 2029 (steady mid-single-digit growth) |
| Supermarket-only revenue (definition varies) | ~$1–2T revenue | Gradual expansion as formats blur with convenience and discount |
| Number of stores (global) | Several hundred thousand stores | Net additions driven by APAC and value formats (discount, compact) |
| Online grocery share | ~12–16% in advanced markets; lower globally | 20–25%+ in many markets as last-mile economics improve |
| Regional growth leaders | APAC outpaces North America & Europe | APAC remains growth engine; emerging markets add volatility |
| Private-label share of sales | ~15–35% (highest in Europe) | Rising globally as quality perception and value focus strengthen |
| Margin pressures | Labor, logistics, energy, commodity inflation, discounter competition | Automation/AI offsets costs; price competition remains intense |
| Technology priorities | Automation, AI inventory, self-checkout, loyalty & personalization | End-to-end data integration and micro-fulfillment at scale |
| Key risks | Margin erosion, regulation, supply chain shocks | Winners invest in efficiency, private label, and omni-channel |
What is the current global market size of the supermarket industry, both in revenue and number of stores?
The supermarket & hypermarket market is about $4.08 trillion in 2025, with supermarket-only revenue near $1–2 trillion due to format definitions.
There are several hundred thousand supermarkets worldwide, and the largest groups (Walmart, Schwarz Group, Aldi, Carrefour, Tesco, Kroger, Ahold Delhaize) each run thousands of stores.
Asia–Pacific contributes a growing share of global sales as modern trade expands, while Europe remains large but mature in absolute value.
Use these benchmarks when sizing your local grocery store opportunity and calibrate your revenue per square foot to realistic peers.
We cover this exact topic in the grocery store business plan.
What has been the annual growth rate of the supermarket industry over the past five years across key regions?
Global growth over 2020–2025 averaged roughly 7–8% including hypermarkets, with APAC outpacing mature regions.
Europe’s market grew closer to 1–3% annually, reflecting saturation and price competition, while North America tracked low-to-mid single digits.
Emerging Asian markets recorded the strongest compound growth thanks to urbanization, rising incomes, and rapid store network build-out.
Anchor your grocery store plan on realistic local CAGR assumptions rather than global averages.
You’ll find detailed market insights in our grocery store business plan, updated every quarter.
What are the projected growth rates for the supermarket industry over the next five to ten years, and how do these vary by region?
Global projections indicate a ~3–7% CAGR through 2029–2030, with APAC leading and Western markets expanding more slowly.
North America and Europe are expected to grow at low single digits due to maturity, regulatory constraints, and persistent competition from discounters.
India, Southeast Asia, and selected Latin American markets are forecast to outgrow the global average, though with higher volatility and execution risk.
Plan your grocery store investments for steady growth at home while exploring supplier partnerships in faster-growing regions.
Get expert guidance and actionable steps inside our grocery store business plan.
What are the leading supermarket chains by market share globally and regionally, and how have their shares evolved recently?
Walmart remains the global revenue leader, followed by Schwarz Group (Lidl/Kaufland), Costco, Kroger, Ahold Delhaize, Aldi, Carrefour, and Tesco.
Discount banners (Aldi, Lidl) have gained share in Europe and some parts of the U.S., while convenience-oriented and club formats have expanded their role post-pandemic.
Market concentration has risen modestly in many countries due to consolidation and the relative strength of scale operators in logistics and private label.
For your grocery store, position against value leaders with a clear assortment, price architecture, and localized differentiation.
This is one of the strategies explained in our grocery store business plan.
What consumer trends are most strongly influencing supermarket sales?
- Online and omni-channel shopping with rapid delivery and click-and-collect as standard expectations.
- Shift toward convenience and compact urban formats with curated, quick-trip assortments.
- Health and wellness: growth in fresh, organic, functional, and ready-to-eat categories.
- Value seeking: increased private-label adoption and trade-down in inflationary periods.
- Personalization: digital loyalty, targeted offers, and data-driven category management.
What percentage of supermarket sales comes from online channels today, and what will it be in five years?
In 2025, online commands ~12–16% of supermarket sales in advanced markets, with lower averages globally.
Five-year outlook points to 20–25%+ in many countries as last-mile costs decline and micro-fulfillment improves.
Third-party marketplaces and owned e-commerce both expand at >20% CAGR, with hybrid models common in urban areas.
Design your grocery store’s channel mix with a lean dark-store or back-of-store picking option and clear delivery economics.
It’s a key part of what we outline in the grocery store business plan.
What are the main cost pressures and margin trends supermarkets are facing?
Labor, logistics, energy, and commodity inputs are the central sources of margin pressure in 2025.
Discounters and e-commerce intensify price competition, compressing gross margins even as volumes hold.
Operators are mitigating with automation, shrink reduction, optimized assortments, and higher private-label penetration.
Your grocery store should hard-wire a cost-to-serve model and weekly price/value tracking to protect EBITDA.
This is one of the many elements we break down in the grocery store business plan.
What role do private-label products play in supermarket revenue, and how will their share evolve?
Private label represents ~15–35% of sales depending on the market, with Europe at the high end.
Share is rising globally as quality perception improves and inflation sustains value seeking, boosting retailer margins and loyalty.
Tiered architectures (value, core, premium, health) enable broader coverage and trade-up within the store brand.
For a new grocery store, prioritize top-velocity categories for own-brand entry and secure reliable co-manufacturers early.
You’ll find detailed market insights in our grocery store business plan, updated every quarter.
What innovations or technologies are supermarkets adopting to drive efficiency and growth?
Retailers deploy automation, AI demand forecasting, and computer-vision/self-checkout to lift throughput and lower shrink.
Data-driven replenishment, micro-fulfillment, and route optimization strengthen online economics and on-shelf availability.
Loyalty ecosystems power personalization, dynamic promotions, and cross-sell into adjacent services.
Build your grocery store stack around accurate inventory visibility, scalable picking, and measurable promo ROI.
Get expert guidance and actionable steps inside our grocery store business plan.
What government regulations or sustainability requirements are impacting supermarket operations and growth?
EU and leading U.S. states are tightening rules on packaging, waste, emissions, labor, and food safety compliance.
ESG reporting standards influence capital access and supplier qualification, adding documentation and auditing costs.
Extended producer responsibility (EPR) and carbon disclosures push retailers toward recyclable packaging and greener logistics.
For your grocery store, plan early for compliance workflows and vendor standards to avoid penalties and delays.
What regional differences in supermarket performance matter most (North America, Europe, Asia–Pacific)?
| Region | 2025 Snapshot | Implications for a Grocery Store |
|---|---|---|
| North America | Mature market; strong club & private label; online penetration mid-teens | Compete via value tiers, fresh leadership, and efficient click-and-collect |
| Europe | High private-label share; discounter expansion; strict regulation | Lean cost structure and EDLP strategies are critical in price-sensitive zones |
| Asia–Pacific | Fastest growth; modern trade expanding; digital adoption high | Compact formats, rapid delivery, and localized assortments win trips |
| Latin America | Volatile inflation; value formats resilient; uneven infrastructure | Hedge currency and lock long-term supply; emphasize private label |
| Middle East & Africa | Developing modern retail; logistics constraints in some markets | Partner for distribution; start with select hubs and scalable assortments |
| India | High growth from low base; rapid organized retail penetration | Neighborhood formats and affordable baskets drive frequency |
| Southeast Asia | Omni-channel leapfrog; strong convenience culture | Invest in last-mile and data-led promotions to improve unit economics |
What investment opportunities and risks should be considered in the supermarket industry over the next decade?
Opportunities cluster in APAC expansion, private-label development, compact urban formats, and integrated last-mile logistics.
Data platforms, micro-fulfillment, and supplier collaboration programs can add durable EBIT and improve inventory turns.
Key risks include sustained price wars with discounters, regulatory costs, and commodity/energy shocks that squeeze gross margin.
Structure your grocery store plan with scenario-based P&L, hedging strategies, and productivity plays that unlock cash.
We cover this exact topic in the grocery store business plan.
What percentage of sales will be online vs. in-store in different regions over the next five years?
Here is a directional view based on current trajectories and announced investments.
| Region | Online Share ~2025 | Online Share ~2030 (Outlook) |
|---|---|---|
| North America | ~14–16% | ~22–25% with dense click-and-collect networks |
| Western Europe | ~12–15% | ~20–24% as delivery economics improve |
| Asia–Pacific (advanced) | ~15–20% (top cities higher) | ~25–30% via super-apps and rapid delivery |
| Latin America | ~6–9% | ~12–16% with marketplace partnerships |
| Eastern Europe | ~7–10% | ~12–18% with improved logistics |
| Middle East | ~8–12% | ~15–20% in urban hubs |
| Africa | ~3–6% | ~8–12% where infrastructure allows |
How are costs and margins typically distributed in a grocery store P&L?
Use this illustrative structure to benchmark your store against industry norms.
| Line Item | Typical Range (% of Sales) | Notes for Operators |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | ~23–32% | Mix, private label, and shrink control drive variance |
| Labor (store + fulfillment) | ~10–14% | Scheduling, self-checkout, and task automation reduce hours |
| Occupancy (rent, utilities) | ~4–7% | Site selection and energy efficiency are decisive |
| Logistics & Delivery | ~2–5% | Route density and pick productivity are critical |
| Marketing & Loyalty | ~1–2% | Shift to targeted, measurable digital offers |
| Shrink (waste, theft) | ~1.5–3.0% | Fresh forecasting, CCTV/vision, and markdown science help |
| EBIT Margin | ~2–5% | Scale and private label uplift EBIT; price wars compress |
Which formats will add the most stores and sales through 2030?
Compact urban supermarkets, discount banners, and convenience-leaning formats will add most locations and incremental trips.
Hypermarkets remain important in car-centric suburbs but are growing slower; club stores expand selectively on value/treasure-hunt propositions.
Online-first micro-fulfillment nodes grow in dense cities, supporting faster delivery and better picking economics.
Match your grocery store format to local trip missions: quick-fill, weekly shop, and top-up, then align assortment and space to velocity.
It’s a key part of what we outline in the grocery store business plan.
Conclusion
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We accept no liability for any actions taken based on the information provided.
Looking to refine your grocery store plan?
Explore more guides on costs, pricing, and profitability benchmarks so you can launch with confidence.
Sources
- The Business Research Company – Supermarkets Global Market Report
- Mordor Intelligence – Global Supermarket Market
- Research and Markets – Supermarkets & Hypermarkets Report
- McKinsey – The State of Grocery in Southeast Asia
- McKinsey – State of Grocery in Europe
- NRF – Top 100 Retailers 2025
- NielsenIQ – 2025 Grocery Trends
- EuroCommerce – The State of Grocery Retail Europe 2025
- Grand View Research – Food & Grocery Retail
- Statista – Grocery Retail Worldwide Sales
-How Much Does It Cost to Buy a Grocery Store?
-How Much Does It Cost to Build a Grocery Store?
-Grocery Store Business Plan: Step-by-Step Guide
-How Much Income per Month Does a Grocery Store Make?
-How Much Does It Cost to Open a Grocery Store?
-Free Budgeting Tool for a Grocery Store
-Grocery Store Equipment Budget: What to Expect
-Grocery Store Initial Inventory: How to Plan
-Grocery Store Sales per Square Foot: Benchmarks
